[Table 1 is from an earlier version of this paper presented on November 21, 1996, at the annual meetings of the American Society of Criminology in Chicago, Illinois.]

Table 1.  Macro-level Studies of the Impact of Gun Levels

                    on Violent Crime Rates^a

 

                             Modelled

                              2-way    Measure of Crime

Study               Sample    Relat.?  Gun Level^b Rates^c Results^d

 

Brearley (1932)  42 states     No       PGH        THR     Yes

Krug (1968)      50 states     No       HLR        ICR      No

Newton and       4 years,      No       NPP      THR,TRR   Yes

 Zimring (1969)   Detroit                        AAR,GHR

Seitz (1972)     50 states     No     GHR,FGA      THR     Yes

                                       AAR

Murray (1975)    50 states     No     SGR,SHR    GHR,AAR    No

                                                   TRR

Fisher (1976)    9 years,      No     NPP,GRR      THR     Yes

                 Detroit                  PGH

Phillips et al.  18 years,     No      PROD        THR     Yes

  (1976)           U.S.

Brill (1977)     11 cities     No       PGC        ICR      No

                                                   THR     Yes

                                                   TRR      No

Kleck (1979)     27 years,    Yes      PROD        THR     Yes

                   U.S.

Cook (1979)      50 cities     No     PGH,PGS      TRR      No

                                                   RMR     Yes

Kleck (1984a)    32 years,    Yes      PROD        THR      No

                   U.S.      No                    TRR     Yes

Magaddino and    31 years,    Yes^e     PROD        THR      No

  Medoff (1984)    U.S.

Lester (1985)    37 cities     No       PCS        VCR      No

Bordua (1986)   102 counties   No^f    GLR,SIR    HAR,THR,   No

                  9 regions                           GHR      No

McDowall (1986)  48 cities,   Yes     PGH,PGS      TRR      No

                  2 years^g

Lester (1988)     9 regions    No       SGR        THR     Yes

McDowall (1991)  36 years,     Yes     PGS,PGR   THR     Yes 

                  Detroit

Killias (1993b)  16 nations   No       SGR       THR,GHR  Yes

Kleck and Pat-

  terson (1993)  170 cities     Yes        ^h    THR,GHR,TRR,  No  

                                              GRR,AAR,GAR

 

Notes:

a. Table covers only studies and findings where the dependent variable was a crime rate, as opposed to the fraction of crimes committed with guns.

b. Measures of Gun Level:FGA = Fatal gun accident rate; GLR = Gun owners license rate; GMR = Gun magazine subscription rates; GRR = Gun registrations rate; HLR = Hunting license rate; NPP = Number of handgun purchase permits; PGA = % aggravated assaults committed with guns; PGC = % homicides, aggravated assaults and robberies (combined together) committed with guns; PCS = same      as PGC, but with suicides lumped in as well; PGH = % homicides committed with guns; PGR = % robberies committed with guns; PGS = % suicides committed with guns; PROD= Guns produced minus exports plus imports, U.S.; SGR = Survey measure, % households with gun(s); SHR = Survey measure, % households with      handgun(s); SIR = Survey measure, % individuals with gun(s)

c. Crime Rates: AAR = Aggravated assault rate; GAR = Gun aggravated assault rate; GHR = Gun homicide rate; HAR = Homicide, assault and robbery index (factor score); ICR = Index crime rate; RMR = Robbery murder rate; THR = Total  homicide rate; TRR = Total robbery rate; VCR = Violent crime rate

d. Yes=Study found significant positive association between gun levels and violence; No=Study did not find such a link.

e. Authors modelled two-way relationship, finding no effect of guns (see column 2 of their Table 9-5), and also reported an effect of guns in a less appropriate model where this was not done (see Column 1 of their Table 9-5).

f. A few gun-violence associations were positive and significant, but almost all involved female gun ownership or male longgun ownership. Bordua interpreted the pattern to indicate the effect of violence on gun ownership.

g. Panel design, two waves.

h. 5-item factor composed of PGS, PGH, PGR, PGA, and the percent of dollar value of stolen property due to stolen guns.