Discussion

Shall-issue states do not have lower violent crime and homicide rates than may-issue states.

The following, from the National Rifle Association (NRA), is unfortunately an example of a deceptive comparison:

"States with Right To Carry laws have lower violent crime rates. On average, they have a 24% lower total violent crime rate, a 19% lower homicide rate, a 39% lower robbery rate, and a 19% lower aggravated assault rate, compared to other states and the District of Columbia. The nine states with the lowest violent crime rates are all Right To Carry states. (Data: FBI)"
(Cited from the NRA's Website: 1/20/2001) (Similar, but more recent misleading numbers: Fact Sheet: The Right to Carry. Also presented similarly in NRA Firearms Facts 2003.

The tables below, using the same FBI data as the NRA, show that in 1998, the shall-issue states, rather than having a "24 percent lower violent crime rate," had a rate that was only 8 percent lower than the may-issue states and the District of Columbia. And, rather than having 19% fewer homicides, the shall-issue states actually had a higher homicide rate. The may-issue states and the District of Columbia had 13.4% fewer homicides.

The NRA's Web pages use a straight arithmetic average of the crime rates, rather than a population weighted average. A straight average allows Washington, D.C., which has astronomical violent crime rates (yet a small population), to distort the overall rates.

Using a straight average this way is absurd. For example, if the U.S. homicide rate were calculated similarly, the sum of homicide rates for the fifty states and Washington, D.C., would be divided by 51. The correct way, and the way rates for the nation are calculated, is to sum the total number of homicides and divide by the total country's population. Comparisons between the shall and may-issue states need to be calculated in similar fashion.

Without examining other factors, such simple comparisons are meaningless. This page is provided simply to show the actual rates. It is not intended to draw any conclusions regarding the effects of right-to-carry laws.

1998 May-Issue (Rates are per 100,000)

		Violent Crime		Homicide
State	Population	Total	Rate	Total	Rate
California	32,667,000	229,883	703.7	2,171	6.6
Colorado	3,971,000	15,008	377.9	183	2.8
Delaware	744,000	5,672	762.0	21	2.8
D.C.	523,000	8,988	1,718.5	260	49.7
Hawaii	1,193,000	2,946	246.9	24	2.0
Illinois	12,045,000	97,291	807.7	1,008	8.4
Iowa	2,862,000	8,916	311.5	54	1.9
Kansas	2,629,000	10,438	397.0	154	5.9
Maryland	5,135,000	40,903	706.6	513	10
Massachusetts	6,147,000	38,192	621.3	124	2.0
Michigan	9,817,000	60,947	620.8	721	7.3
Minnesota	4,725,000	14,656	310.2	121	2.6
Missouri	5,439,000	30,222	555.7	399	7.3
Nebraska	1,663,000	7,507	451.4	51	3.1
New Jersey	8,115,000	35,717	440.1	322	4.0
New Mexico	1,737,000	16,700	961.4	190	10.9
New York	18,175,000	115,915	637.8	924	5.1
Ohio	11,209,000	40,628	362.5	443	4.0
Rhode Island	988,000	3,084	312.1	24	2.4
Wisconsin	5,224,000	13,009	249.0	190	3.6
Totals	135,008,000	796,622	590.1	7,897	5.9

1998 Right to Carry (Rates are per 100,000)

		Violent Crime		Homicide
State	Population	Total	Rate	Total	Rate
Alabama	4,352,000	22,286	512.1	354	8.1
Alaska	614,000	4015	653.9	41	6.7
Arizona	4,669,000	26,984	577.9	376	8.1
Arkansas	2,538,000	12,442	490.2	201	7.9
Connecticut	3,274,000	11,993	366.3	135	4.1
Florida	14,916,000	140,016	938.7	967	6.5
Georgia	7,642,000	43,762	572.7	618	8.1
Idaho	1,229,000	3,468	282.2	36	2.9
Indiana	5,899,000	25,423	431	454	7.7
Kentucky	3,936,000	11,180	284	182	4.6
Louisiana	4,369,000	34,057	779.5	560	12.8
Maine	1,244,000	1,565	125.8	25	2.0
Mississippi	2,752,000	11,302	410.7	315	11.4
Montana	880,000	1,221	138.8	36	4.1
Nevada	1,747,000	11,244	643.6	170	9.7
New Hampshire	1,185,000	1,270	107.2	18	1.5
North Carolina	7,546,000	43,723	579.4	612	8.1
North Dakota	638,000	570	89.3	7	1.1
Oklahoma	3,347,000	18,053	539.4	204	6.1
Oregon	3,282,000	13,778	419.8	126	3.8
Pennsylvania	12,001,000	50,470	420.5	633	5.3
South Carolina	3,836,000	34,647	903.2	306	8.0
South Dakota	738,000	1,139	154.3	10	1.4
Tennessee	5,431,000	38,832	715	460	8.5
Texas	19,760,000	111,566	564.6	1,346	6.8
Utah	2,059,000	6,599	314.2	65	3.1
Vermont	591,000	628	106.3	13	2.2
Virginia	6,791,000	22,115	325.7	422	6.2
Washington	5,689,000	24,380	428.5	224	3.9
West Virginia	1,811,000	4,503	248.6	78	4.3
Wyoming	481,000	1,191	247.6	23	4.8
Totals	135,247,000	734,422	543.0	9,017	6.7