[Table 1 is from an earlier version of this paper presented on November 21, 1996, at the annual meetings of the American Society of Criminology in Chicago, Illinois.]
Table 1. Macro-level Studies of the Impact of Gun Levels
on Violent Crime Ratesa
2-way Measure of Crime
Study Sample Relat.? Gun Levelb Ratesc Resultsd
Brearley (1932) 42 states No PGH THR Yes
Krug (1968) 50 states No HLR ICR No
Newton and 4 years, No NPP THR,TRR Yes
Zimring (1969) Detroit AAR,GHR
Murray (1975) 50 states No SGR,SHR GHR,AAR No
Fisher (1976) 9 years, No NPP,GRR THR Yes
Phillips et al. 18 years, No PROD THR Yes
Brill (1977) 11 cities No PGC ICR No
Kleck (1979) 27 years, Yes PROD THR Yes
Cook (1979) 50 cities No PGH,PGS TRR No
Kleck (1984a) 32 years, Yes PROD THR No
U.S. No TRR Yes
Magaddino and 31 years, Yese PROD THR No
Medoff (1984) U.S.
Lester (1985) 37 cities No PCS VCR No
Bordua (1986) 102 counties Nof GLR,SIR HAR,THR, No
9 regions GHR No
McDowall (1986) 48 cities, Yes PGH,PGS TRR No
Lester (1988) 9 regions No SGR THR Yes
McDowall (1991) 36 years, Yes PGS,PGR THR Yes
Killias (1993b) 16 nations No SGR THR,GHR Yes
Kleck and Pat-
terson (1993) 170 cities Yes h THR,GHR,TRR, No
a. Table covers only studies and findings where the dependent variable was a crime rate, as opposed to the fraction of crimes committed with guns.
b. Measures of Gun Level:FGA = Fatal gun accident rate; GLR = Gun owners license rate; GMR = Gun magazine subscription rates; GRR = Gun registrations rate; HLR = Hunting license rate; NPP = Number of handgun purchase permits; PGA = % aggravated assaults committed with guns; PGC = % homicides, aggravated assaults and robberies (combined together) committed with guns; PCS = same as PGC, but with suicides lumped in as well; PGH = % homicides committed with guns; PGR = % robberies committed with guns; PGS = % suicides committed with guns; PROD= Guns produced minus exports plus imports, U.S.; SGR = Survey measure, % households with gun(s); SHR = Survey measure, % households with handgun(s); SIR = Survey measure, % individuals with gun(s)
c. Crime Rates: AAR = Aggravated assault rate; GAR = Gun aggravated assault rate; GHR = Gun homicide rate; HAR = Homicide, assault and robbery index (factor score); ICR = Index crime rate; RMR = Robbery murder rate; THR = Total homicide rate; TRR = Total robbery rate; VCR = Violent crime rate
d. Yes=Study found significant positive association between gun levels and violence; No=Study did not find such a link.
e. Authors modelled two-way relationship, finding no effect of guns (see column 2 of their Table 9-5), and also reported an effect of guns in a less appropriate model where this was not done (see Column 1 of their Table 9-5).
f. A few gun-violence associations were positive and significant, but almost all involved female gun ownership or male longgun ownership. Bordua interpreted the pattern to indicate the effect of violence on gun ownership.
g. Panel design, two waves.
h. 5-item factor composed of PGS, PGH, PGR, PGA, and the percent of dollar value of stolen property due to stolen guns.